Can Europe Sustain 2 Million Shells Per Year Once Powder Bottlenecks Determine Output? The establishment consensus holds that the EU’s €500 million ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) program, combined with €1.5+ billion in follow-on industrial financing, represents a rational industrial policy designed to rebuild European munitions capacity and achieve the politically-binding target of […]
The establishment consensus holds that the United States will deliver 50-100+ operationally-capable hypersonic missiles by the end of fiscal 2027, with Lockheed Martin’s LRHW (Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon), Raytheon’s HACM (Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile), and the Navy’s CPS (Conventional Prompt Strike) all reaching initial operational capability or production readiness. This conclusion is demonstrably false based on
Can European Navies Deploy 15 New Frigates by 2030? The establishment view in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris is that Europe’s coordinated naval procurement, backed by political will and fresh funding, will successfully deliver a new generation of frigates on time. This view is catastrophically wrong. My core thesis is that Europe’s three major naval consortiums—Fincantieri,
Can Western Semiconductor Alliances Survive Industrial Subsidy Competition? The establishment consensus holds that the CHIPS Act and related semiconductor initiatives globally represent a rational, coordinated effort to secure democratic supply chains against authoritarian dependence. This conclusion is catastrophically wrong. The core thesis: The CHIPS Act functions as strategic enclosure rather than alliance coordination—a $52.7 billion subsidy
