On July 6–7, 2025, Indonesia will make its historic debut as a full BRICS member at the Rio de Janeiro summit, marking a pivotal moment in Southeast Asia’s geopolitical realignment. President Prabowo Subianto’s attendance signals Indonesia’s strategic bet on the expanded bloc—now representing 46% of global GDP and 55% of the world’s population after adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, and Indonesia. This move culminates Indonesia’s year-long integration process, beginning with partner status in January 2025 and accelerating under President Subianto, who embraced membership despite predecessor Joko Widodo’s initial hesitation.
Why Indonesia Took the BRICS Plunge
Indonesia’s accession reflects pragmatic economic and diplomatic calculus:
- Economic Diversification: Seeking alternatives to Western-dominated financial institutions, Indonesia aims to leverage BRICS’ New Development Bank for infrastructure funding and access the Contingent Reserve Arrangement as a buffer against currency crises.
- Global South Leadership: Foreign Ministry statements emphasize BRICS as a “strategic platform” to amplify developing nations’ voices in global governance reform.
- Trade Expansion: With China as Indonesia’s largest trading partner, BRICS offers structured pathways to deepen economic ties beyond bilateral agreements.
Crucially, Indonesia insists this isn’t an anti-West pivot. Foreign Ministry spokesman Rolliansyah Soemirat clarified the nation remains committed to “independent and active foreign policy,” positioning itself as a “bridge builder” between conflicting interests.
The Rio Agenda: Indonesia’s Strategic Playbook
At the summit, Indonesia will prioritize three areas aligned with Brazil’s presidency theme: “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance”:
- De-Dollarization: Supporting BRICS payment systems to reduce USD dependency—a stance tested by Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on members abandoning the dollar.
- Climate Financing: Advocating for streamlined BRICS green funds ahead of COP30 in Brazil, leveraging Indonesia’s Village Climate Risk Index initiative.
- Tech Sovereignty: Pushing for inclusive AI governance frameworks and technology transfers to close the Global South’s digital divide.
Behind closed doors, Prabowo will likely seek China’s backing for Indonesia’s OECD accession bid—a delicate balancing act exemplifying Jakarta’s multidirectional diplomacy.
The ASEAN Ripple Effect
Indonesia’s move has catalyzed regional momentum:
- Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam joined as partner countries in January 2025, with full membership applications expected by 2026.
- ASEAN trade with BRICS could surge 20% by 2030 if Malaysia succeeds in formalizing bloc-level cooperation.
- However, fractures emerge: Philippines and Singapore resist BRICS engagement, fearing Chinese influence could undermine ASEAN unity on South China Sea disputes.
Analysts warn BRICS could dilute “ASEAN centrality” as members pursue individual agendas. Malaysia’s plan to invite Putin to October’s ASEAN summit already faces internal opposition.
Trump’s Shadow and the US-Indonesia Dilemma
The summit unfolds under geopolitical pressure:
- Trump’s November 2024 threat of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations pursuing dollar alternatives looms over trade discussions.
- U.S. officials privately warned Jakarta about “economic repercussions,” though no concrete measures have materialized.
- Indonesia counters by highlighting its $14 billion trade surplus with the U.S. and ongoing security cooperation, betting economic pragmatism will temper U.S. pushback.
As researcher M. Habib Abiyan Dzakwan notes: “Indonesia doesn’t intend to break from the West—it’s expanding its playing field”.
The Road Ahead: Opportunities and Pitfalls
Opportunities:
- Economic Upside: Accessing BRICS’ projected $20 billion infrastructure fund could modernize Indonesia’s ports and renewable grid.
- Diplomatic Clout: Mediating between Russia and Western-aligned members like Brazil elevates Indonesia’s global stature.
Risks:
- Overextension: Managing 58+ BRICS working groups strains bureaucratic capacity.
- Geopolitical Tightrope: Balancing U.S. security ties with China’s economic pull demands exquisite diplomatic finesse.
As Subianto lands in Rio—fresh from a state visit to Brasília—his challenge is clear: leverage BRICS to amplify Indonesia’s voice without alienating Western partners. With the bloc poised to expand further (Nigeria joined as a partner in January 2025), Indonesia’s debut could redefine 21st-century multipolarity.